Debating the 10%

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There seem to be a lot of casual political observers out there who can't understand why the US presidential race appears to be so close. After 8 years of Bush, most people think it should be a romp for the Democrats. How can McCain, whose policies are 90% the same as Bush's, be doing so well in the polls? How can people not notice?! It looks crazy to an outsider and it's easy to conclude that Americans must just be monumentally stupid. Rather than delve into the intricacies of the US race, I'd like to point out an interesting comparison.

Here in Australia, Rudd Labor's policies are 90% the same as Howard Liberal's but hardly anyone seems to notice or care. In the 9 months since Rudd took office, we've had the symbolic signing of Kyoto, the apology to stolen generations and the end of mandatory detention centres. The first two are welcome changes of pace, but purely symbolic. The latter represents a real change and a welcome one for anyone who believes in basic human decency. But if you're expecting more than symbolism and the odd bit of tinkering around the edges, don't get your hopes up.

Most of the power a government has lies in economic carrots and sticks. If you want people to stop doing something, tax it. If you want to encourage it, cut taxes on it. If something's important fund it, if something's not, cut funding. That's the day-to-day business of government. When it comes to the current government, it's hard to imagine a policy sheet that could be more like the previous Liberal government's if you tried. No wonder the Libs are angry and confused, they've had their space co-opted!

Now you tell me which is more amazing - that the new government is gutless enough to be 90% the same as the old one after being elected on the back of a vote for change, or the fact that nobody seems to notice or be willing to believe it? Except the ones who voted Liberal of course, but no-one listens to them.

What happens when 90% of your platform is the same as the other guy? You make a big noise about the 10%. That's what we get in Australia. That's what we got with Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in the primaries. That's what we've got with McCain and Bush. People obsess about the details and miss the much bigger picture.

The Republicans know this of course. So did Rudd. People like to be deceived. Sometimes the bigger truths are just too terrible. Much safer to stay in the 10%.